Silver's model defines a landslide as a double-digit popular vote margin. By this definition, the model predicts Harris' chances to achieve this at 1.1 percent, and Trump's at 0.1 percent.

Understanding Landslides: A New Model for Predicting Motion Oct. 17, 2024 — Along coastal California, the possibility of earthquakes and landslides are commonly prefaced by the phrase ...

In the aftermath of Helene, Bauer plotted the path of the new landslide in comparison to the model. “It did pretty well but it didn’t track how much it would spread out,” Bauer said.