Penn State made a decisive early move against SMU last week, leaving its offense on the field for a pivotal 4th-and-1 attempt from its own 19-yard line. The conversion fell short, primarily because of a misplayed snap, and the Mustangs took over down 14-0 in prime position to reframe the game.

SportsLine's model simulated Saturday's Penn State Nittany Lions vs. SMU Mustangs College Football Playoff first round matchup 10,000 times