Stocks are rallying — but is a recession on our doorstep?

Recession indicators are everywhere, but will they all amount to a hill of beans? Americans are on the lookout for signs of a recession. The signs have been with us, depending on whom you ask, pretty ...

But yield curves can invert when investors expect a recession resulting from the Federal Reserve policy lifting interest ...

The disconnect between hard data and soft data is creating challenges for market participants and Federal Reserve officials, ...

Our weekly simulation for U.S. Treasury bills. Read the latest update in the article series, as of May 9, 2025.

A slowdown in the U.S. economy could cause yields to fall, with rate-cut expectations prompting shorter-dated yields to fall the most, leading the yield curve—which is currently inverted—to ...