The yield curve is frequently spoken about when investors are discussing bonds and wider economics, but what precisely is it?

The yield on the 10-year note ended July 11, 2025, at 4.43%. The 2-year note ended at 3.90% and the 30-year note ended at ...

The chart below presents one version of the yield curve. This one looks at the spread between the 10-year treasury note and the year bill. Even the most casual perusal of this chart shows what an ...

The 10-year (US10Y) and 2-year (US2Y) Treasury yields reached 4%, with the curve inverting early on Monday for the first time since August. The move comes after Friday's blowout jobs report. The ...

The yield curve is a line on a graph that typically shows the relationship between the yield that investors receive on a bond investment and the time until the bond matures.

According to this chart from Piper Sandler, yield-curve inversions have typically meant rising unemployment claims. Based on seven prior inversions, that process is just getting started.

A yield curve plots the interest rates of bonds that have equal credit quality but different maturity dates. The three types are normal, inverted, and flat.

The blue line in this chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve illustrates yield curve inversion when it dips below 0, while the grey bars indicate periods of recession.

The precise time between a yield curve inversion and a recession is difficult to predict, and it has varied considerably. Still, for five decades, it has been a reliable indicator.

Though yield curve inversions tend to precede recessions, decisions made by consumers can ultimately flip the switch and force the economy into contraction.

So what's the big deal with all these lines on a graph? Well an inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969. So now that the curve is inverted, is a recession imminent?

When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...