The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation ...

The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and contracted -0.3% annualized, led by a sharp slowdown in net exports. Consumption ...

Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation ...

April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade ...

Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect ...

BCA House View: Bracing For Recession And Rising Stagflation Risk ...

Last week’s tariff debacle kicks off a period of heightened global policy uncertainty under the new US administration. That is bad news for financial assets exposed to the business cycle. Meanwhile, ...

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President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exceptional” than it already is. Trump pledged to reverse America’s decline, ...

BCA House View: Bracing For Recession And Rising Stagflation Risk ...

BCA House View: Bracing For Recession And Rising Stagflation Risk ...