The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and contracted -0.3% annualized, led by a sharp slowdown in net exports. Consumption ...

Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect ...

Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025. First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of ...

President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exceptional” than it already is. Trump pledged to reverse America’s decline, ...

The stock-bond yield correlation is stabilizing after months of jitters, setting the stage for renewed Treasury demand as recession risks build. A negative correlation typically points to inflation ...

Soft data continues to deteriorate and hard data will soon follow, reinforcing our defensive asset allocation. Consumer and business confidence have plunged as policy uncertainty and inflation ...

BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...

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BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...

The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several ...

BCA House View: Bracing For Recession And Rising Stagflation Risk ...

BCA Research is the leading independent provider of global investment research Since 1949, BCA Research's mission has been to shape the level of conviction with which our clients make investment ...